The Map and the Territory

The Map and the Territory

Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting

Book - 2013
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Explains how the financial crisis has challenged fundamental assumptions about leading economic models, drawing on twenty-first-century technologies and the expertise of behavioral economists to outline new forecasting practices.
Publisher: New York :, The Penguin Press,, 2013.
ISBN: 9781594204814
Characteristics: 388 pages cm


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Dec 08, 2013

Although not without its moments, Mr. Greenspan has written a very odd book, strangely silent about both his failures and successes as Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board. He has nothing to say about why the FOMC did not move to an inflation targeting regime in July 1996, when it came up for discussion. Nothing happened on this until January 2012 under his successor Ben Bernanke. And he has nothing to say about this or the subsequent move to forward guidance based on the unemployment rate in December 2012. He does not take any credit for making the US Fed the first central bank to monitor a chain price index with a SATIRE (SAtisfing TIme REversal formula), the personal consumption expenditure deflator, but neither does he take any blame for monitoring an index that excludes housing prices, one of the big contributors to the housing boom and bust of the nought decade. (For more on this issue, please see my paper "A Better Inflation Indicator".) Andrew Baldwin

Oct 31, 2013

In Greenspan's "author notes" there is no mention of his time at Brown Brothers Harriman (after he was fired from Chase for incompetence), or Goldman Sachs? Most curious? Also, wasn't aware he finally received his Ph.D.? For a much more enlightening - - and honest - - book, please read Prof. Ravi Batra's "Greenspan's Fraud" - - also, about that "...challenged fundamental assumptions about leading economic models..." Duuuuhhh, so "economic models" on housing, only allowing for rising prices aren't questionable? ? So, misused formulae and equations which don't apply, aren't questionable? Did Greenspan really finally get his Ph.D.?


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